Lay Under 0.5 First Half Goals in 0-0 games when shots on target detected. Per-league odds gates from 105K match dataset ensure we only enter at profitable odds.
Rules
- ▪ Score must be 0-0
- ▪ Shots on target (SOT) >= 1
- ▪ Entry window: 15-35 minutes
- ▪ Per-league maximum lay odds from league_odds_gates.json
- ▪ Scout pre-trade assessment filters dangerous H2H
Edge
Lay under = back that a goal WILL score FH. SOT >= 1 confirms attacking intent. League gates eliminate unprofitable odds.
Trades
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Win Rate
40%
P&L
£-9.54
ROI
-22.5%
Equity Curve
Trades
All →| Date | Match | League | HT | FT | Strategy | Odds | Stake | P&L | Exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar | Salford v Milton Keynes Do | Lge 2 | — | — | FH0.5 | 1.34 | £24.23 | -8.24 | ht stop loss |
| 28 Mar | Newport County v Shrewsbury | Lge 2 | — | — | FH0.5 | 1.68 | £6.03 | +5.91 | green up win |
| 26 Mar | America de Cali v Llaneros | — | — | — | FH0.5 | 2.12 | £5.20 | -5.82 | ht stop loss |
| 24 Mar | Doncaster Rovers v Port Vale | — | — | — | FH0.5 | 2.06 | £3.73 | +3.73 | settlement win |
| 23 Mar | CD Castellon v Leonesa | — | — | — | FH0.5 | 2.64 | £3.12 | -5.12 | settlement loss |
Decision Journal
Full journal →FH0.5 LAY @ 1.35 stake=£52.26 SOT=1 lay=1.35 min=33
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.46 stake=£49.31 SOT=1 lay=1.46 min=32
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.58 stake=£39.12 SOT=1 lay=1.58 min=28
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.51 stake=£26.64 SOT=1 lay=1.51 min=26
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.61 stake=£22.27 SOT=1 lay=1.61 min=22
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.68 stake=£19.98 SOT=1 lay=1.68 min=20
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.80 stake=£16.98 SOT=1 lay=1.80 min=16
SH2.5 LAY @ 4.00 stake=£3.47 score=0-0 delta=12 lay=4.00
SH2.5 LAY @ 2.44 stake=£7.30 score=0-0 delta=6 lay=2.44
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.52 stake=£20.34 SOT=3 lay=1.52 min=32
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.46 stake=£22.99 SOT=4 lay=1.46 min=30
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.75 stake=£14.10 SOT=3 lay=1.75 min=31
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.57 stake=£18.55 SOT=4 lay=1.57 min=29
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.96 stake=£11.01 SOT=2 lay=1.96 min=26
FH1.5 LAY @ 1.10 stake=£101.70 SOT=4 lay=1.10 min=24
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.67 stake=£15.79 SOT=4 lay=1.67 min=24
FH0.5 LAY @ 2.20 stake=£8.81 SOT=1 lay=2.20 min=25
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.80 stake=£13.22 SOT=3 lay=1.80 min=23
FH0.5 LAY @ 2.42 stake=£7.45 SOT=1 lay=2.42 min=20
FH0.5 LAY @ 1.94 stake=£11.25 SOT=1 lay=1.94 min=18